Global oil production is set to ramp up, easing market strains and pushing spare

capacity towards levels unseen outside of the Covid crisis, according to the IEA’s new

oil market outlook.

Oil 2024, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual medium-term market report, examines

the far-reaching implications of these dynamics for oil supply security, refining, trade

and investment. Based on today’s policies and market trends, strong demand from

fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and petrochemicals

sectors, is set to drive oil use higher in the coming years, the report finds.

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Oil 2024 – Analysis – IEA

Oil 2024 – Analysis and key findings. A report by the

International Energy Agency.

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Oil

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A surge in global oil production capacity, led by the United States and other producers

in the Americas, is expected to outstrip demand growth between now and 2030. Total

supply capacity is forecast to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030 – a

staggering 8 million barrels per day above projected global demand, the report finds.

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As a result, the report forecasts that global oil demand, which includes biofuels

averaged over 102 million barrels per day in 2023.

“This year, we expect demand to rise by around 1 million barrels per day,” said IEA

Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This report’s projections, based on the latest data,

show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may

want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes

taking place.”

The report shows that the global oil demand is still forecast to be 3.2 million barrels

per day higher in 2030 than in 2023. The increase is set to be driven by emerging

economies in Asia – especially higher oil use for transport in India – and by greater

use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the booming petrochemicals industry, notably in

China.

Producers outside of OPEC+ are leading the expansion of global production capacity

to meet this anticipated demand, accounting for three-quarters of the expected increase

to 2030.

The United States alone is poised to account for 2.1 million barrels per day of non-

OPEC+ gains, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana contribute a further 2.7

million barrels per day.

If companies continue to approve additional projects already on the drawing board, a

further 1.3 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ capacity could become operational

by 2030.

According to the report, global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3 million

barrels per day between 2023 and 2030. This should be sufficient to meet demand for

refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-

refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs).